• HCQ is effective for COVID-19.
The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as
the 214 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in
460 quadrillion (p = 0.0000000000000000022).
• Early treatment is most successful,
with 100% of studies reporting a
positive effect and an estimated reduction of
65% in the effect measured
(death, hospitalization, etc.) using a random effects meta-analysis, RR
0.35
[0.27-0.44].
• 92% of Randomized
Controlled Trials (RCTs) for early, PrEP, or PEP treatment report positive
effects, the probability of this happening for an ineffective treatment is
0.0032.
• There is evidence of bias towards
publishing negative results. 89% of prospective
studies report positive effects, and only 76%
of retrospective studies do.
• Studies from North America are
3.7 times more likely to report negative results
than studies from the rest of the world combined, p =
0.00000021.
• All data to reproduce this paper and
the sources are in the appendix.
Total 214 studies 3,317 authors 187,011 patients
Positive effects 169 studies 2,612 authors 142,732 patients
Early treatment
65% improvement
RR 0.35
[0.27-0.44]
Late treatment
26% improvement
RR 0.74
[0.69-0.80]
A
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ Gautret 0.34 [0.17-0.68] 2.4g viral- 36 RR CI Dose (4d) N Huang (RCT) 0.08 [0.01-1.32] 4.0g (c) recovery 22 Esper 0.36 [0.15-0.87] 2.0g hospitalization 636 Ashraf 0.32 [0.10-1.10] 1.6g death 82 Huang (ES) 0.41 [0.26-0.66] 2.0g (c) viral- 69 Guérin 0.39 [0.02-9.06] 2.4g death 54 Chen (RCT) 0.28 [0.10-0.82] 1.6g viral- 30 Lagier 0.41 [0.27-0.62] 2.4g death 3,737 Derwand 0.21 [0.03-1.47] 1.6g death 518 Mitjà (RCT) 0.75 [0.32-1.78] 2.0g hospitalization 271 Skipper (RCT) 0.48 [0.17-1.39] 3.2g hospitalization 395 Hong 0.35 [0.13-0.72] n/a viral- 90 Bernabeu-Wittel 0.41 [0.36-0.95] 2.0g death 272 Yu (ES) 0.15 [0.02-1.05] 1.6g death 2,677 Ly 0.44 [0.26-0.75] 2.4g death 226 Ip 0.45 [0.11-1.85] n/a death 1,067 Heras 0.04 [0.02-0.09] n/a death 100 Kirenga 0.74 [0.37-1.48] n/a recovery 56 Sulaiman 0.36 [0.17-0.80] 2.0g death 5,541 Guisado-Vasco (ES) 0.33 [0.05-1.55] n/a death 607 Fonseca 0.36 [0.20-0.67] 2.0g hospitalization 717 Cadegiani 0.19 [0.01-3.88] 1.6g death 296 Simova 0.06 [0.00-1.13] 2.4g hospitalization 38 Omrani (RCT) 0.88 [0.26-2.94] 2.4g hospitalization 456 Agusti 0.32 [0.06-1.67] 2.0g progression 142 Su 0.15 [0.04-0.57] 1.6g progression 616 Amaravadi (DB RCT) 0.40 [0.13-1.28] 3.2g recovery 27 Early treatment 0.35 [0.27-0.44] 18,778 patients 65% improvement All 27 hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 early treatment studies hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Tau2 = 0.15; I2 = 45.7%; Z = 8.49 (p < 0.0001) Lower Risk Increased Risk
B
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ All studies Early treatment min, Q1, median, Q3, max Lower Risk Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21
C
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Gautret viral+, p=0.001 Huang no recov., p=0.02 Esper hosp., p=0.02 Izoulet death, p<0.001 Ashraf death, p=0.15 Huang viral- time, p<0.0001 Guérin death, p=1.00 Chen viral- time, p=0.01 Lagier death, p=0.05 Derwand death, p=0.12 Mitjà hosp., p=0.64 Skipper hosp., p=0.19 Hong viral+, p=0.001 Bernabeu-Wittel death, p=0.03 Yu death, p=0.02 Ly death, p=0.02 Ip death, p=0.43 Heras death, p=0.004 Kirenga recov. time, p=0.20 Sulaiman death, p=0.01 Guisado-Vasco death, p=0.19 Fonseca hosp., p=0.0008 Cadegiani death, p=0.21 Simova hosp., p=0.01 Omrani hosp., p=1.00 Agusti progression, p=0.21 Su progression, p=0.006 Amaravadi no recov., p=0.13 Early treatment % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Probability results from ineffective treatment May 31 p <0.01 1 in 100 Jul 3 p <0.001 1 in 1 thousand Aug 1 p <0.0001 1 in 10 thousand Aug 25 p <0.00001 1 in 100 thousand Sep 13 p <0.000001 1 in 1 million Nov 12 p <0.0000001 1 in 10 million
D
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Xia, viral+, p=0.17 Chen, progression, p=0.57 Gautret, viral+, p=0.001 Zhong, viral+, p<0.0001 Chen, pneumonia, p=0.04 Huang, no recov., p=0.02 Barbosa, death, p=0.58 Tang, viral+, p=0.51 Esper, hosp., p=0.02 Magagnoli, death, p=0.74 Izoulet, death, p<0.001 Ashraf, death, p=0.15 Auld, death, p=1.00 Sánchez..., death, p=0.005 Mallat, viral- time, p=0.02 Huh, cases, p=0.09 Mitchell, death, p<0.0001 Gendelman, cases, p=0.88 Membrillo..., death, p=0.002 Geleris, int./death, p=0.76 Konig, hosp., p=0.88 Alberici, death, p=0.12 Rosenberg, death, p=0.31 Shabrawishi, viral+, p=0.66 Cassione, cases, p=0.59 Mahévas, death, p=0.75 Yu, death, p=0.002 Macias, hosp., p=1.00 Kim, hosp. time, p=0.01 Singh, death, p=0.72 Ip, death, p=0.93 Goldman, death, p=0.46 Huang, viral- time, p<0.0001 Gianfrancesco, hosp., p=0.82 Chatterjee, cases, p<0.001 Kuderer, death, p<0.0001 Guérin, death, p=1.00 Boulware, cases, p=0.35 RECOVERY, death, p=0.15 Bhattacharya, cases, p=0.001 Wang, death, p=0.63 Huang, hosp., p<0.001 Luo, death, p=0.99 Paccoud, death, p=0.88 Sbidian, death, p=0.74 Faíco-Filho, viral rate, p=0.40 Chen, viral- time, p=0.01 Fontana, death, p=0.53 Bousquet, death, p=0.15 Lagier, death, p=0.05 Gendebien, cases, p=0.93 Ferreira, cases, p<0.0001 Sosa-García, death, p=1.00 Komissarov, viral load, p=0.45 Mikami, death, p<0.0001 Martinez-Lopez, death, p=0.20 Arshad, death, p=0.009 Zhong, cases, p=0.04 Derwand, death, p=0.12 An, viral+, p=0.92 Rivera-Izquierdo, death, p=0.75 Chen, viral+, p=0.70 Chen, viral+, p=0.71 Cravedi, death, p=0.17 Lecronier, death, p=0.24 Trullàs, death, p=0.12 Gupta, death, p=0.41 Mitjà, hosp., p=0.64 Skipper, hosp., p=0.19 Hong, viral+, p=0.001 Lyngbakken, death, p=1.00 McGrail, death, p=0.69 Desbois, cases, p=1.00 Bernaola, death, p<0.0001 Kelly, death, p=0.03 Rivera, death, p=0.90 Cavalcanti, death, p=0.77 Khurana, cases, p=0.02 Mitjà, death, p=0.27 D'Arminio..., death, p=0.12 Bernabeu-Wittel, death, p=0.03 Davido, int./hosp., p=0.04 Yu, progression, p=0.05 Berenguer, death, p<0.0001 Kamran, progression, p=1.00 Kalligeros, death, p=0.57 Singer, cases, p=0.62 Saleemi, viral- time, p<0.05 Roomi, death, p=0.54 Abd-Elsalam, death, p=1.00 Peters, death, p=0.57 Pinato, death, p<0.0001 Dubernet, ICU, p=0.008 Gonzalez, death, p=0.06 Ly, death, p=0.02 Pasquini, death, p=0.34 Catteau, death, p<0.0001 Di Castelnuovo, death, p<0.0001 Ip, death, p=0.43 Ferri, cases, p=0.01 Fried, death, p<0.001 Albani, death, p=0.05 de la Iglesia, hosp., p=1.00 Heras, death, p=0.004 Synolaki, death, p=0.27 Laplana, cases, p=0.24 Rentsch, death, p=0.83 Kirenga, recov. time, p=0.20 Alamdari, death, p=0.03 Heberto, death, p=0.04 Sulaiman, death, p=0.01 Lauriola, death, p<0.001 Ashinyo, hosp. time, p=0.03 Grau-Pujol, cases, p=0.47 Rajasingham, hosp., p=1.00 Gentry, death, p=0.10 Serrano, death, p=0.14 Ulrich, death, p=1.00 Shoaibi, death, p<0.001 Lammers, death/ICU, p=0.02 Abella, cases, p=1.00 Ayerbe, death, p<0.001 Polat, cases, p=0.03 Almazrou, ventilation, p=0.16 Nachega, death, p=0.17 Ader, death, p=1.00 Soto-Becerra, death, p<0.0001 Aparisi, death, p=0.008 Annie, death, p=0.83 SOLIDARITY, death, p=0.23 Guisado-Vasco, death, p=0.36 Solh, death, p=0.17 Ñamendys-Silva, death, p=0.18 Dubee, death, p=0.21 Lano, death, p=0.28 Coll, death, p<0.0001 Goenka, IgG+, p=0.03 Frontera, death, p=0.01 Choi, viral- time, p<0.0001 Arleo, death, p=0.67 Tehrani, death, p=0.63 Fonseca, hosp., p=0.0008 López, progression, p=0.02 Behera, cases, p=0.29 Cadegiani, death, p=0.21 Salazar, death, p=0.28 Rodriguez-Nava, death, p=0.77 Maldonado, death, p=0.17 Dhibar, cases, p=0.03 Mathai, cases, p<0.0001 Núñez-Gil, death, p=0.005 Self, death, p=0.84 Rodriguez, death, p=0.23 Águila-Gordo, death, p=0.10 Simova, cases, p=0.01 Simova, hosp., p=0.01 Sheshah, death, p<0.001 Boari, death, p<0.001 Budhiraja, death, p<0.0001 Falcone, death, p=0.20 Omrani, hosp., p=1.00 Revollo, cases, p=0.52 Qin, death, p=0.61 van Halem, death, p=0.05 Rodriguez-Gonzalez, death, p=0.26 Lambermont, death, p=0.46 Abdulrahman, death, p=1.00 Capsoni, ventilation, p=0.30 Peng, progression, p=0.63 Modrák, death, p=0.04 Ozturk, death, p=0.14 Barnabas, hosp., p=1.00 Guglielmetti, death, p=0.22 Agusti, progression, p=0.21 Johnson, hosp., p=0.73 Alqassieh, hosp. time, p=0.11 Jung, death, p=1.00 Bielza, death, p=0.09 Tan, hosp. time, p=0.04 Naseem, death, p=0.34 Orioli, death, p=1.00 Gönenli, progression, p=0.77 Signes-Costa, death, p=0.0005 Matangila, death, p=0.21 Huh, progression, p=0.11 Cangiano, death, p=0.03 Taccone, death, p=0.0004 Su, progression, p=0.006 Chari, death, p=0.17 Cordtz, hosp., p=0.67 Güner, ICU, p=0.16 Vernaz, death, p=0.71 Texeira, death, p=0.10 Psevdos, death, p=0.52 Sands, death, p=0.01 Sarfaraz, death, p=0.07 Yegerov, death, p=1.00 Rangel, death, p=0.77 Li, viral- time, p=0.06 Li, no discharge, p=0.08 Trefond, death, p=0.80 Roig, death, p=0.76 Ubaldo, death, p=0.64 Ouedraogo, death, p=0.38 Hernandez-Cardenas, death, p=0.66 Fitzgerald, cases, p=0.52 Purwati, viral+, p<0.0001 Lora-Tamayo, death, p<0.0001 Awad, death, p=0.60 Lamback, death, p=0.83 Bae, cases, p=0.17 Beltran-Gonzalez, death, p=0.27 Amaravadi, no recov., p=0.13 Pham, death, p=0.77 All studies % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Probability results from ineffective treatment May 19 p <0.01 1 in 100 Jul 1 p <0.0001 1 in 10 thousand Aug 21 p <0.00001 1 in 100 thousand Sep 13 p <0.000001 1 in 1 million Sep 24 p <0.0000001 1 in 10 million Oct 23 1 in 1 billion Nov 19 1 in 1 trillion Dec 11 1 in 1 quadrillion Feb 1 1 in 10 quadrillion
Figure 1. A. Random effects
meta-analysis of all early treatment studies. Simplified dosages are shown for
comparison, these are the total dose in the first four days of treatment.
Chloroquine is indicated with (c). For full details see the appendix.
B. Scatter plot of the effects reported in early treatment studies and
in all studies. Early treatment is more effective.
C and D.
Chronological history of all reported effects, with the probability that the
observed frequency of positive effects occurred due to random chance from an
ineffective treatment.
Introduction
We analyze all significant studies concerning the use of HCQ
(or CQ) for COVID-19. Search methods, inclusion criteria, effect extraction
criteria (more serious outcomes have priority), all individual study data,
PRISMA answers, and statistical methods are detailed in
Appendix 1 . We
present random-effects meta-analysis results for all studies, for studies
within each treatment stage, for mortality results only, after exclusion of
studies with critical bias, and for Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) only.
Typical meta analyses involve subjective selection criteria and bias
evaluation, requiring an understanding of the criteria and the accuracy of the
evaluations. However, the volume of studies presents an opportunity for an
additional simple and transparent analysis aimed at detecting efficacy.
If treatment was not effective, the observed effects would be
randomly distributed (or more likely to be negative if treatment is harmful).
We can compute the probability that the observed percentage of positive
results (or higher) could occur due to chance with an ineffective treatment
(the probability of >= k heads in n coin tosses, or the
one-sided sign test / binomial test). Analysis of publication bias is
important and adjustments may be needed if there is a bias toward publishing
positive results. For HCQ, we find evidence of a bias toward publishing
negative results.
Figure 2 shows stages of possible treatment for
COVID-19.
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) refers to regularly taking
medication before being infected, in order to prevent or minimize infection.
In
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) , medication is taken after exposure
but before symptoms appear.
Early Treatment refers to treatment
immediately or soon after symptoms appear, while
Late Treatment refers
to more delayed treatment.
Results
Figure 3 ,
Figure 4 , and
Table 1 show results by treatment stage, and
Figure 5
shows a forest plot for a random effects meta-analysis of all studies.
Figure 6 shows a forest plot restricted to mortality results
only.
Early treatment.
100% of early treatment studies
report a positive effect, with an estimated reduction of
65% in the effect measured
(death, hospitalization, etc.) from the random effects meta-analysis, RR
0.35
[0.27-0.44].
Late treatment.
Late treatment studies are
mixed, with 75% showing positive
effects, and an estimated reduction of
26% in the random effects
meta-analysis. Negative studies mostly fall into the following categories:
they show evidence of significant unadjusted confounding, including
confounding by indication; usage is extremely late; or they use an excessively
high dosage.
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis.
79% of PrEP studies show positive
effects, with an estimated reduction of
34% in the random effects
meta-analysis. Negative studies are all studies of systemic autoimmune disease
patients which either do not adjust for the different baseline risk of these
patients at all, or do not adjust for the highly variable risk within these
patients.
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis.
83% of PEP studies report positive
effects, with an estimated reduction of
36% in the random effects
meta-analysis.
Treatment time Number of studies reporting positive results
Total number of studies Percentage of studies reporting positive results
Probability of an equal or greater percentage of positive results from an ineffective
treatment Random effects meta-analysis results
Early treatment
28
28
100%
0.0000000037
p = 3.7e-09
1 in 268 million
65% improvement RR 0.35 [0.27‑0.44]
p < 0.0001
Late treatment
109
145
75.2%
0.0000000005
p = 5e-10
1 in 2 billion
26% improvement RR 0.74 [0.69‑0.80]
p < 0.0001
Pre‑Exposure Prophylaxis
30
38
78.9%
0.00024
p = 0.00024
1 in 4 thousand
34% improvement RR 0.66 [0.52‑0.84]
p = 0.00092
Post‑Exposure Prophylaxis
5
6
83.3%
0.11
p = 0.11
1 in 9
36% improvement RR 0.64 [0.47‑0.88]
p = 0.006
All studies
169
214
79.0%
0.0000000000000000022
p = 2.2e-18
1 in 460 quadrillion
31% improvement RR 0.69 [0.64‑0.74]
p < 0.0001
Table 1. Results by treatment stage.
3 studies report results for a subset with early
treatment, these are not included in the overall results.
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2+ All studies Post-Exposure Prophylaxis Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Late treatment Early treatment min, Q1, median, Q3, max Lower Risk Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Gautret viral+, p=0.001 Huang no recov., p=0.02 Esper hosp., p=0.02 Izoulet death, p<0.001 Ashraf death, p=0.15 Huang viral- time, p<0.0001 Guérin death, p=1.00 Chen viral- time, p=0.01 Lagier death, p=0.05 Derwand death, p=0.12 Mitjà hosp., p=0.64 Skipper hosp., p=0.19 Hong viral+, p=0.001 Bernabeu-Wittel death, p=0.03 Yu death, p=0.02 Ly death, p=0.02 Ip death, p=0.43 Heras death, p=0.004 Kirenga recov. time, p=0.20 Sulaiman death, p=0.01 Guisado-Vasco death, p=0.19 Fonseca hosp., p=0.0008 Cadegiani death, p=0.21 Simova hosp., p=0.01 Omrani hosp., p=1.00 Agusti progression, p=0.21 Su progression, p=0.006 Amaravadi no recov., p=0.13 Early treatment % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Probability results from ineffective treatment May 31 p <0.01 1 in 100 Jul 3 p <0.001 1 in 1 thousand Aug 1 p <0.0001 1 in 10 thousand Aug 25 p <0.00001 1 in 100 thousand Sep 13 p <0.000001 1 in 1 million Nov 12 p <0.0000001 1 in 10 million
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Xia, viral+, p=0.17 Chen, progression, p=0.57 Zhong, viral+, p<0.0001 Chen, pneumonia, p=0.04 Barbosa, death, p=0.58 Tang, viral+, p=0.51 Magagnoli, death, p=0.74 Auld, death, p=1.00 Sánchez..., death, p=0.005 Mallat, viral- time, p=0.02 Membrillo..., death, p=0.002 Geleris, int./death, p=0.76 Alberici, death, p=0.12 Rosenberg, death, p=0.31 Shabrawishi, viral+, p=0.66 Mahévas, death, p=0.75 Yu, death, p=0.002 Kim, hosp. time, p=0.01 Singh, death, p=0.72 Ip, death, p=0.93 Goldman, death, p=0.46 Huang, viral- time, p<0.0001 Kuderer, death, p<0.0001 RECOVERY, death, p=0.15 Wang, death, p=0.63 Luo, death, p=0.99 Paccoud, death, p=0.88 Sbidian, death, p=0.74 Faíco-Filho, viral rate, p=0.40 Fontana, death, p=0.53 Bousquet, death, p=0.15 Sosa-García, death, p=1.00 Komissarov, viral load, p=0.45 Mikami, death, p<0.0001 Martinez-Lopez, death, p=0.20 Arshad, death, p=0.009 An, viral+, p=0.92 Rivera-Izquierdo, death, p=0.75 Chen, viral+, p=0.70 Chen, viral+, p=0.71 Cravedi, death, p=0.17 Lecronier, death, p=0.24 Trullàs, death, p=0.12 Gupta, death, p=0.41 Lyngbakken, death, p=1.00 McGrail, death, p=0.69 Bernaola, death, p<0.0001 Kelly, death, p=0.03 Rivera, death, p=0.90 Cavalcanti, death, p=0.77 D'Arminio..., death, p=0.12 Davido, int./hosp., p=0.04 Yu, progression, p=0.05 Berenguer, death, p<0.0001 Kamran, progression, p=1.00 Kalligeros, death, p=0.57 Saleemi, viral- time, p<0.05 Roomi, death, p=0.54 Abd-Elsalam, death, p=1.00 Peters, death, p=0.57 Pinato, death, p<0.0001 Dubernet, ICU, p=0.008 Gonzalez, death, p=0.06 Pasquini, death, p=0.34 Catteau, death, p<0.0001 Di Castelnuovo, death, p<0.0001 Fried, death, p<0.001 Albani, death, p=0.05 Synolaki, death, p=0.27 Alamdari, death, p=0.03 Heberto, death, p=0.04 Lauriola, death, p<0.001 Ashinyo, hosp. time, p=0.03 Serrano, death, p=0.14 Ulrich, death, p=1.00 Shoaibi, death, p<0.001 Lammers, death/ICU, p=0.02 Ayerbe, death, p<0.001 Almazrou, ventilation, p=0.16 Nachega, death, p=0.17 Ader, death, p=1.00 Soto-Becerra, death, p<0.0001 Aparisi, death, p=0.008 Annie, death, p=0.83 SOLIDARITY, death, p=0.23 Guisado-Vasco, death, p=0.36 Solh, death, p=0.17 Ñamendys-Silva, death, p=0.18 Dubee, death, p=0.21 Lano, death, p=0.28 Coll, death, p<0.0001 Frontera, death, p=0.01 Choi, viral- time, p<0.0001 Tehrani, death, p=0.63 López, progression, p=0.02 Salazar, death, p=0.28 Rodriguez-Nava, death, p=0.77 Maldonado, death, p=0.17 Núñez-Gil, death, p=0.005 Self, death, p=0.84 Rodriguez, death, p=0.23 Águila-Gordo, death, p=0.10 Sheshah, death, p<0.001 Boari, death, p<0.001 Budhiraja, death, p<0.0001 Falcone, death, p=0.20 Qin, death, p=0.61 van Halem, death, p=0.05 Rodriguez-Gonzalez, death, p=0.26 Lambermont, death, p=0.46 Abdulrahman, death, p=1.00 Capsoni, ventilation, p=0.30 Peng, progression, p=0.63 Modrák, death, p=0.04 Ozturk, death, p=0.14 Guglielmetti, death, p=0.22 Johnson, hosp., p=0.73 Alqassieh, hosp. time, p=0.11 Bielza, death, p=0.09 Tan, hosp. time, p=0.04 Naseem, death, p=0.34 Orioli, death, p=1.00 Signes-Costa, death, p=0.0005 Matangila, death, p=0.21 Cangiano, death, p=0.03 Taccone, death, p=0.0004 Chari, death, p=0.17 Güner, ICU, p=0.16 Vernaz, death, p=0.71 Texeira, death, p=0.10 Psevdos, death, p=0.52 Sands, death, p=0.01 Sarfaraz, death, p=0.07 Yegerov, death, p=1.00 Li, viral- time, p=0.06 Li, no discharge, p=0.08 Roig, death, p=0.76 Ubaldo, death, p=0.64 Ouedraogo, death, p=0.38 Hernandez-Cardenas, death, p=0.66 Purwati, viral+, p<0.0001 Lora-Tamayo, death, p<0.0001 Awad, death, p=0.60 Lamback, death, p=0.83 Beltran-Gonzalez, death, p=0.27 Late treatment % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Probability results from ineffective treatment Jun 30 p <0.05 1 in 20 Sep 5 p <0.01 1 in 100 Oct 1 p <0.001 1 in 1 thousand Nov 5 p <0.0001 1 in 10 thousand Nov 17 p <0.00001 1 in 100 thousand Nov 30 p <0.000001 1 in 1 million Dec 9 p <0.0000001 1 in 10 million Feb 19 1 in 1 billion
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Huh cases, p=0.09 Mitchell death, p<0.0001 Gendelman cases, p=0.88 Konig hosp., p=0.88 Cassione cases, p=0.59 Macias hosp., p=1.00 Gianfrancesco hosp., p=0.82 Chatterjee cases, p<0.001 Bhattacharya cases, p=0.001 Huang hosp., p<0.001 Gendebien cases, p=0.93 Ferreira cases, p<0.0001 Zhong cases, p=0.04 Desbois cases, p=1.00 Khurana cases, p=0.02 Singer cases, p=0.62 Ferri cases, p=0.01 de la Iglesia hosp., p=1.00 Laplana cases, p=0.24 Rentsch death, p=0.83 Grau-Pujol cases, p=0.47 Rajasingham hosp., p=1.00 Gentry death, p=0.10 Abella cases, p=1.00 Goenka IgG+, p=0.03 Arleo death, p=0.67 Behera cases, p=0.29 Mathai cases, p<0.0001 Revollo cases, p=0.52 Jung death, p=1.00 Gönenli progression, p=0.77 Huh progression, p=0.11 Cordtz hosp., p=0.67 Rangel death, p=0.77 Trefond death, p=0.80 Fitzgerald cases, p=0.52 Bae cases, p=0.17 Pham death, p=0.77 Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21 Probability results from ineffective treatment Sep 21 p <0.05 1 in 20 Oct 24 p <0.01 1 in 100 Dec 28 p <0.001 1 in 1 thousand
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Boulware, cases, p=0.35 Mitjà, death, p=0.27 Polat, cases, p=0.03 Dhibar, cases, p=0.03 Simova, cases, p=0.01 Barnabas, hosp., p=1.00 Post-Exposure Prophylaxis % Lower Risk % Increased Risk hcqmeta.com 3/4/21
Figure 4. Chronological history of results by
treatment stage, with the probability that the observed frequency of positive
results occurred due to random chance from an ineffective treatment.