COVID-19 studies:  C19 studies: C19:  IvermectinIVM Vitamin DV.D HC QHC Q Vitamin CV.C ZincZn PVP-IPVP-I FLVFLV REGNR2 LY-CoVLY RemdesivirRMD
 
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HCQ is effective for COVID-19. The probability that an ineffective treatment generated results as positive as the 214 studies to date is estimated to be 1 in 460 quadrillion (p = 0.0000000000000000022).
Early treatment is most successful, with 100% of studies reporting a positive effect and an estimated reduction of 65% in the effect measured (death, hospitalization, etc.) using a random effects meta-analysis, RR 0.35 [0.27-0.44].
92% of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) for early, PrEP, or PEP treatment report positive effects, the probability of this happening for an ineffective treatment is 0.0032.
There is evidence of bias towards publishing negative results. 89% of prospective studies report positive effects, and only 76% of retrospective studies do.
Studies from North America are 3.7 times more likely to report negative results than studies from the rest of the world combined, p = 0.00000021.
All data to reproduce this paper and the sources are in the appendix.
Total214 studies3,317 authors187,011 patients
Positive effects169 studies2,612 authors142,732 patients
Early treatment 65% improvement RR 0.35 [0.27-0.44]
Late treatment 26% improvement RR 0.74 [0.69-0.80]
    
  
A
00.250.50.7511.251.51.752+Gautret0.34[0.17-0.68]2.4gviral-36RRCIDose (4d)NHuang (RCT)0.08[0.01-1.32]4.0g (c)recovery22Esper0.36[0.15-0.87]2.0ghospitalization636Ashraf0.32[0.10-1.10]1.6gdeath82Huang (ES)0.41[0.26-0.66]2.0g (c)viral-69Guérin0.39[0.02-9.06]2.4gdeath54Chen (RCT)0.28[0.10-0.82]1.6gviral-30Lagier0.41[0.27-0.62]2.4gdeath3,737Derwand0.21[0.03-1.47]1.6gdeath518Mitjà (RCT)0.75[0.32-1.78]2.0ghospitalization271Skipper (RCT)0.48[0.17-1.39]3.2ghospitalization395Hong0.35[0.13-0.72]n/aviral-90Bernabeu-Wittel0.41[0.36-0.95]2.0gdeath272Yu (ES)0.15[0.02-1.05]1.6gdeath2,677Ly0.44[0.26-0.75]2.4gdeath226Ip0.45[0.11-1.85]n/adeath1,067Heras0.04[0.02-0.09]n/adeath100Kirenga0.74[0.37-1.48]n/arecovery56Sulaiman0.36[0.17-0.80]2.0gdeath5,541Guisado-Vasco (ES)0.33[0.05-1.55]n/adeath607Fonseca0.36[0.20-0.67]2.0ghospitalization717Cadegiani0.19[0.01-3.88]1.6gdeath296Simova0.06[0.00-1.13]2.4ghospitalization38Omrani (RCT)0.88[0.26-2.94]2.4ghospitalization456Agusti0.32[0.06-1.67]2.0gprogression142Su0.15[0.04-0.57]1.6gprogression616Amaravadi (DB RCT)0.40[0.13-1.28]3.2grecovery27Early treatment0.35[0.27-0.44]18,778 patients65% improvementAll 27 hydroxychloroquine COVID-19 early treatment studieshcqmeta.com 3/4/21Tau​2 = 0.15; I​2 = 45.7%; Z = 8.49 (p < 0.0001)Lower RiskIncreased Risk
    
  
B
00.250.50.7511.251.51.752+All studiesEarly treatmentmin, Q1, median, Q3, maxLower RiskIncreased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21
    
  
C
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Gautretviral+, p=0.001Huangno recov., p=0.02Esperhosp., p=0.02Izouletdeath, p<0.001Ashrafdeath, p=0.15Huangviral- time, p<0.0001Guérindeath, p=1.00Chenviral- time, p=0.01Lagierdeath, p=0.05Derwanddeath, p=0.12Mitjàhosp., p=0.64Skipperhosp., p=0.19Hongviral+, p=0.001Bernabeu-Witteldeath, p=0.03Yudeath, p=0.02Lydeath, p=0.02Ipdeath, p=0.43Herasdeath, p=0.004Kirengarecov. time, p=0.20Sulaimandeath, p=0.01Guisado-Vascodeath, p=0.19Fonsecahosp., p=0.0008Cadegianideath, p=0.21Simovahosp., p=0.01Omranihosp., p=1.00Agustiprogression, p=0.21Suprogression, p=0.006Amaravadino recov., p=0.13Early treatment% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21Probability results fromineffective treatmentMay 31 p<0.011 in 100Jul 3 p<0.0011 in 1 thousandAug 1 p<0.00011 in 10 thousandAug 25 p<0.000011 in 100 thousandSep 13 p<0.0000011 in 1 millionNov 12 p<0.00000011 in 10 million
    
  
D
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Xia, viral+, p=0.17Chen, progression, p=0.57Gautret, viral+, p=0.001Zhong, viral+, p<0.0001Chen, pneumonia, p=0.04Huang, no recov., p=0.02Barbosa, death, p=0.58Tang, viral+, p=0.51Esper, hosp., p=0.02Magagnoli, death, p=0.74Izoulet, death, p<0.001Ashraf, death, p=0.15Auld, death, p=1.00Sánchez..., death, p=0.005Mallat, viral- time, p=0.02Huh, cases, p=0.09Mitchell, death, p<0.0001Gendelman, cases, p=0.88Membrillo..., death, p=0.002Geleris, int./death, p=0.76Konig, hosp., p=0.88Alberici, death, p=0.12Rosenberg, death, p=0.31Shabrawishi, viral+, p=0.66Cassione, cases, p=0.59Mahévas, death, p=0.75Yu, death, p=0.002Macias, hosp., p=1.00Kim, hosp. time, p=0.01Singh, death, p=0.72Ip, death, p=0.93Goldman, death, p=0.46Huang, viral- time, p<0.0001Gianfrancesco, hosp., p=0.82Chatterjee, cases, p<0.001Kuderer, death, p<0.0001Guérin, death, p=1.00Boulware, cases, p=0.35RECOVERY, death, p=0.15Bhattacharya, cases, p=0.001Wang, death, p=0.63Huang, hosp., p<0.001Luo, death, p=0.99Paccoud, death, p=0.88Sbidian, death, p=0.74Faíco-Filho, viral rate, p=0.40Chen, viral- time, p=0.01Fontana, death, p=0.53Bousquet, death, p=0.15Lagier, death, p=0.05Gendebien, cases, p=0.93Ferreira, cases, p<0.0001Sosa-García, death, p=1.00Komissarov, viral load, p=0.45Mikami, death, p<0.0001Martinez-Lopez, death, p=0.20Arshad, death, p=0.009Zhong, cases, p=0.04Derwand, death, p=0.12An, viral+, p=0.92Rivera-Izquierdo, death, p=0.75Chen, viral+, p=0.70Chen, viral+, p=0.71Cravedi, death, p=0.17Lecronier, death, p=0.24Trullàs, death, p=0.12Gupta, death, p=0.41Mitjà, hosp., p=0.64Skipper, hosp., p=0.19Hong, viral+, p=0.001Lyngbakken, death, p=1.00McGrail, death, p=0.69Desbois, cases, p=1.00Bernaola, death, p<0.0001Kelly, death, p=0.03Rivera, death, p=0.90Cavalcanti, death, p=0.77Khurana, cases, p=0.02Mitjà, death, p=0.27D'Arminio..., death, p=0.12Bernabeu-Wittel, death, p=0.03Davido, int./hosp., p=0.04Yu, progression, p=0.05Berenguer, death, p<0.0001Kamran, progression, p=1.00Kalligeros, death, p=0.57Singer, cases, p=0.62Saleemi, viral- time, p<0.05Roomi, death, p=0.54Abd-Elsalam, death, p=1.00Peters, death, p=0.57Pinato, death, p<0.0001Dubernet, ICU, p=0.008Gonzalez, death, p=0.06Ly, death, p=0.02Pasquini, death, p=0.34Catteau, death, p<0.0001Di Castelnuovo, death, p<0.0001Ip, death, p=0.43Ferri, cases, p=0.01Fried, death, p<0.001Albani, death, p=0.05de la Iglesia, hosp., p=1.00Heras, death, p=0.004Synolaki, death, p=0.27Laplana, cases, p=0.24Rentsch, death, p=0.83Kirenga, recov. time, p=0.20Alamdari, death, p=0.03Heberto, death, p=0.04Sulaiman, death, p=0.01Lauriola, death, p<0.001Ashinyo, hosp. time, p=0.03Grau-Pujol, cases, p=0.47Rajasingham, hosp., p=1.00Gentry, death, p=0.10Serrano, death, p=0.14Ulrich, death, p=1.00Shoaibi, death, p<0.001Lammers, death/ICU, p=0.02Abella, cases, p=1.00Ayerbe, death, p<0.001Polat, cases, p=0.03Almazrou, ventilation, p=0.16Nachega, death, p=0.17Ader, death, p=1.00Soto-Becerra, death, p<0.0001Aparisi, death, p=0.008Annie, death, p=0.83SOLIDARITY, death, p=0.23Guisado-Vasco, death, p=0.36Solh, death, p=0.17Ñamendys-Silva, death, p=0.18Dubee, death, p=0.21Lano, death, p=0.28Coll, death, p<0.0001Goenka, IgG+, p=0.03Frontera, death, p=0.01Choi, viral- time, p<0.0001Arleo, death, p=0.67Tehrani, death, p=0.63Fonseca, hosp., p=0.0008López, progression, p=0.02Behera, cases, p=0.29Cadegiani, death, p=0.21Salazar, death, p=0.28Rodriguez-Nava, death, p=0.77Maldonado, death, p=0.17Dhibar, cases, p=0.03Mathai, cases, p<0.0001Núñez-Gil, death, p=0.005Self, death, p=0.84Rodriguez, death, p=0.23Águila-Gordo, death, p=0.10Simova, cases, p=0.01Simova, hosp., p=0.01Sheshah, death, p<0.001Boari, death, p<0.001Budhiraja, death, p<0.0001Falcone, death, p=0.20Omrani, hosp., p=1.00Revollo, cases, p=0.52Qin, death, p=0.61van Halem, death, p=0.05Rodriguez-Gonzalez, death, p=0.26Lambermont, death, p=0.46Abdulrahman, death, p=1.00Capsoni, ventilation, p=0.30Peng, progression, p=0.63Modrák, death, p=0.04Ozturk, death, p=0.14Barnabas, hosp., p=1.00Guglielmetti, death, p=0.22Agusti, progression, p=0.21Johnson, hosp., p=0.73Alqassieh, hosp. time, p=0.11Jung, death, p=1.00Bielza, death, p=0.09Tan, hosp. time, p=0.04Naseem, death, p=0.34Orioli, death, p=1.00Gönenli, progression, p=0.77Signes-Costa, death, p=0.0005Matangila, death, p=0.21Huh, progression, p=0.11Cangiano, death, p=0.03Taccone, death, p=0.0004Su, progression, p=0.006Chari, death, p=0.17Cordtz, hosp., p=0.67Güner, ICU, p=0.16Vernaz, death, p=0.71Texeira, death, p=0.10Psevdos, death, p=0.52Sands, death, p=0.01Sarfaraz, death, p=0.07Yegerov, death, p=1.00Rangel, death, p=0.77Li, viral- time, p=0.06Li, no discharge, p=0.08Trefond, death, p=0.80Roig, death, p=0.76Ubaldo, death, p=0.64Ouedraogo, death, p=0.38Hernandez-Cardenas, death, p=0.66Fitzgerald, cases, p=0.52Purwati, viral+, p<0.0001Lora-Tamayo, death, p<0.0001Awad, death, p=0.60Lamback, death, p=0.83Bae, cases, p=0.17Beltran-Gonzalez, death, p=0.27Amaravadi, no recov., p=0.13Pham, death, p=0.77All studies% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21Probability results fromineffective treatmentMay 19 p<0.011 in 100Jul 1 p<0.00011 in 10 thousandAug 21 p<0.000011 in 100 thousandSep 13 p<0.0000011 in 1 millionSep 24 p<0.00000011 in 10 millionOct 231 in 1 billionNov 191 in 1 trillionDec 111 in 1 quadrillionFeb 11 in 10 quadrillion
Figure 1. A. Random effects meta-analysis of all early treatment studies. Simplified dosages are shown for comparison, these are the total dose in the first four days of treatment. Chloroquine is indicated with (c). For full details see the appendix. B. Scatter plot of the effects reported in early treatment studies and in all studies. Early treatment is more effective. C and D. Chronological history of all reported effects, with the probability that the observed frequency of positive effects occurred due to random chance from an ineffective treatment.
Introduction
We analyze all significant studies concerning the use of HCQ (or CQ) for COVID-19. Search methods, inclusion criteria, effect extraction criteria (more serious outcomes have priority), all individual study data, PRISMA answers, and statistical methods are detailed in Appendix 1. We present random-effects meta-analysis results for all studies, for studies within each treatment stage, for mortality results only, after exclusion of studies with critical bias, and for Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) only. Typical meta analyses involve subjective selection criteria and bias evaluation, requiring an understanding of the criteria and the accuracy of the evaluations. However, the volume of studies presents an opportunity for an additional simple and transparent analysis aimed at detecting efficacy.
If treatment was not effective, the observed effects would be randomly distributed (or more likely to be negative if treatment is harmful). We can compute the probability that the observed percentage of positive results (or higher) could occur due to chance with an ineffective treatment (the probability of >= k heads in n coin tosses, or the one-sided sign test / binomial test). Analysis of publication bias is important and adjustments may be needed if there is a bias toward publishing positive results. For HCQ, we find evidence of a bias toward publishing negative results.
Figure 2 shows stages of possible treatment for COVID-19. Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) refers to regularly taking medication before being infected, in order to prevent or minimize infection. In Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (PEP), medication is taken after exposure but before symptoms appear. Early Treatment refers to treatment immediately or soon after symptoms appear, while Late Treatment refers to more delayed treatment.
    
  
Figure 2. Treatment stages.
Results
Figure 3, Figure 4, and Table 1 show results by treatment stage, and Figure 5 shows a forest plot for a random effects meta-analysis of all studies.
Figure 6 shows a forest plot restricted to mortality results only.
Early treatment.
100% of early treatment studies report a positive effect, with an estimated reduction of 65% in the effect measured (death, hospitalization, etc.) from the random effects meta-analysis, RR 0.35 [0.27-0.44].
Late treatment.
Late treatment studies are mixed, with 75% showing positive effects, and an estimated reduction of 26% in the random effects meta-analysis. Negative studies mostly fall into the following categories: they show evidence of significant unadjusted confounding, including confounding by indication; usage is extremely late; or they use an excessively high dosage.
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis.
79% of PrEP studies show positive effects, with an estimated reduction of 34% in the random effects meta-analysis. Negative studies are all studies of systemic autoimmune disease patients which either do not adjust for the different baseline risk of these patients at all, or do not adjust for the highly variable risk within these patients.
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis.
83% of PEP studies report positive effects, with an estimated reduction of 36% in the random effects meta-analysis.
Treatment timeNumber of studies reporting positive results Total number of studiesPercentage of studies reporting positive results Probability of an equal or greater percentage of positive results from an ineffective treatmentRandom effects meta-analysis results
Early treatment 28 28 100% 0.0000000037 p = 3.7e-09
1 in 268 million
65% improvement
RR 0.35 [0.27‑0.44]
p < 0.0001
Late treatment 109 145 75.2% 0.0000000005 p = 5e-10
1 in 2 billion
26% improvement
RR 0.74 [0.69‑0.80]
p < 0.0001
Pre‑Exposure Prophylaxis 30 38 78.9% 0.00024 p = 0.00024
1 in 4 thousand
34% improvement
RR 0.66 [0.52‑0.84]
p = 0.00092
Post‑Exposure Prophylaxis 5 6 83.3% 0.11 p = 0.11
1 in 9
36% improvement
RR 0.64 [0.47‑0.88]
p = 0.006
All studies 169 214 79.0% 0.0000000000000000022 p = 2.2e-18
1 in 460 quadrillion
31% improvement
RR 0.69 [0.64‑0.74]
p < 0.0001
Table 1. Results by treatment stage. 3 studies report results for a subset with early treatment, these are not included in the overall results.
    
  
00.250.50.7511.251.51.752+All studiesPost-Exposure ProphylaxisPre-Exposure ProphylaxisLate treatmentEarly treatmentmin, Q1, median, Q3, maxLower RiskIncreased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21
Figure 3. Results by treatment stage.
    
  
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Gautretviral+, p=0.001Huangno recov., p=0.02Esperhosp., p=0.02Izouletdeath, p<0.001Ashrafdeath, p=0.15Huangviral- time, p<0.0001Guérindeath, p=1.00Chenviral- time, p=0.01Lagierdeath, p=0.05Derwanddeath, p=0.12Mitjàhosp., p=0.64Skipperhosp., p=0.19Hongviral+, p=0.001Bernabeu-Witteldeath, p=0.03Yudeath, p=0.02Lydeath, p=0.02Ipdeath, p=0.43Herasdeath, p=0.004Kirengarecov. time, p=0.20Sulaimandeath, p=0.01Guisado-Vascodeath, p=0.19Fonsecahosp., p=0.0008Cadegianideath, p=0.21Simovahosp., p=0.01Omranihosp., p=1.00Agustiprogression, p=0.21Suprogression, p=0.006Amaravadino recov., p=0.13Early treatment% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21Probability results fromineffective treatmentMay 31 p<0.011 in 100Jul 3 p<0.0011 in 1 thousandAug 1 p<0.00011 in 10 thousandAug 25 p<0.000011 in 100 thousandSep 13 p<0.0000011 in 1 millionNov 12 p<0.00000011 in 10 million
    
  
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Xia, viral+, p=0.17Chen, progression, p=0.57Zhong, viral+, p<0.0001Chen, pneumonia, p=0.04Barbosa, death, p=0.58Tang, viral+, p=0.51Magagnoli, death, p=0.74Auld, death, p=1.00Sánchez..., death, p=0.005Mallat, viral- time, p=0.02Membrillo..., death, p=0.002Geleris, int./death, p=0.76Alberici, death, p=0.12Rosenberg, death, p=0.31Shabrawishi, viral+, p=0.66Mahévas, death, p=0.75Yu, death, p=0.002Kim, hosp. time, p=0.01Singh, death, p=0.72Ip, death, p=0.93Goldman, death, p=0.46Huang, viral- time, p<0.0001Kuderer, death, p<0.0001RECOVERY, death, p=0.15Wang, death, p=0.63Luo, death, p=0.99Paccoud, death, p=0.88Sbidian, death, p=0.74Faíco-Filho, viral rate, p=0.40Fontana, death, p=0.53Bousquet, death, p=0.15Sosa-García, death, p=1.00Komissarov, viral load, p=0.45Mikami, death, p<0.0001Martinez-Lopez, death, p=0.20Arshad, death, p=0.009An, viral+, p=0.92Rivera-Izquierdo, death, p=0.75Chen, viral+, p=0.70Chen, viral+, p=0.71Cravedi, death, p=0.17Lecronier, death, p=0.24Trullàs, death, p=0.12Gupta, death, p=0.41Lyngbakken, death, p=1.00McGrail, death, p=0.69Bernaola, death, p<0.0001Kelly, death, p=0.03Rivera, death, p=0.90Cavalcanti, death, p=0.77D'Arminio..., death, p=0.12Davido, int./hosp., p=0.04Yu, progression, p=0.05Berenguer, death, p<0.0001Kamran, progression, p=1.00Kalligeros, death, p=0.57Saleemi, viral- time, p<0.05Roomi, death, p=0.54Abd-Elsalam, death, p=1.00Peters, death, p=0.57Pinato, death, p<0.0001Dubernet, ICU, p=0.008Gonzalez, death, p=0.06Pasquini, death, p=0.34Catteau, death, p<0.0001Di Castelnuovo, death, p<0.0001Fried, death, p<0.001Albani, death, p=0.05Synolaki, death, p=0.27Alamdari, death, p=0.03Heberto, death, p=0.04Lauriola, death, p<0.001Ashinyo, hosp. time, p=0.03Serrano, death, p=0.14Ulrich, death, p=1.00Shoaibi, death, p<0.001Lammers, death/ICU, p=0.02Ayerbe, death, p<0.001Almazrou, ventilation, p=0.16Nachega, death, p=0.17Ader, death, p=1.00Soto-Becerra, death, p<0.0001Aparisi, death, p=0.008Annie, death, p=0.83SOLIDARITY, death, p=0.23Guisado-Vasco, death, p=0.36Solh, death, p=0.17Ñamendys-Silva, death, p=0.18Dubee, death, p=0.21Lano, death, p=0.28Coll, death, p<0.0001Frontera, death, p=0.01Choi, viral- time, p<0.0001Tehrani, death, p=0.63López, progression, p=0.02Salazar, death, p=0.28Rodriguez-Nava, death, p=0.77Maldonado, death, p=0.17Núñez-Gil, death, p=0.005Self, death, p=0.84Rodriguez, death, p=0.23Águila-Gordo, death, p=0.10Sheshah, death, p<0.001Boari, death, p<0.001Budhiraja, death, p<0.0001Falcone, death, p=0.20Qin, death, p=0.61van Halem, death, p=0.05Rodriguez-Gonzalez, death, p=0.26Lambermont, death, p=0.46Abdulrahman, death, p=1.00Capsoni, ventilation, p=0.30Peng, progression, p=0.63Modrák, death, p=0.04Ozturk, death, p=0.14Guglielmetti, death, p=0.22Johnson, hosp., p=0.73Alqassieh, hosp. time, p=0.11Bielza, death, p=0.09Tan, hosp. time, p=0.04Naseem, death, p=0.34Orioli, death, p=1.00Signes-Costa, death, p=0.0005Matangila, death, p=0.21Cangiano, death, p=0.03Taccone, death, p=0.0004Chari, death, p=0.17Güner, ICU, p=0.16Vernaz, death, p=0.71Texeira, death, p=0.10Psevdos, death, p=0.52Sands, death, p=0.01Sarfaraz, death, p=0.07Yegerov, death, p=1.00Li, viral- time, p=0.06Li, no discharge, p=0.08Roig, death, p=0.76Ubaldo, death, p=0.64Ouedraogo, death, p=0.38Hernandez-Cardenas, death, p=0.66Purwati, viral+, p<0.0001Lora-Tamayo, death, p<0.0001Awad, death, p=0.60Lamback, death, p=0.83Beltran-Gonzalez, death, p=0.27Late treatment% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21Probability results fromineffective treatmentJun 30 p<0.051 in 20Sep 5 p<0.011 in 100Oct 1 p<0.0011 in 1 thousandNov 5 p<0.00011 in 10 thousandNov 17 p<0.000011 in 100 thousandNov 30 p<0.0000011 in 1 millionDec 9 p<0.00000011 in 10 millionFeb 191 in 1 billion
    
  
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Huhcases, p=0.09Mitchelldeath, p<0.0001Gendelmancases, p=0.88Konighosp., p=0.88Cassionecases, p=0.59Maciashosp., p=1.00Gianfrancescohosp., p=0.82Chatterjeecases, p<0.001Bhattacharyacases, p=0.001Huanghosp., p<0.001Gendebiencases, p=0.93Ferreiracases, p<0.0001Zhongcases, p=0.04Desboiscases, p=1.00Khuranacases, p=0.02Singercases, p=0.62Ferricases, p=0.01de la Iglesiahosp., p=1.00Laplanacases, p=0.24Rentschdeath, p=0.83Grau-Pujolcases, p=0.47Rajasinghamhosp., p=1.00Gentrydeath, p=0.10Abellacases, p=1.00GoenkaIgG+, p=0.03Arleodeath, p=0.67Beheracases, p=0.29Mathaicases, p<0.0001Revollocases, p=0.52Jungdeath, p=1.00Gönenliprogression, p=0.77Huhprogression, p=0.11Cordtzhosp., p=0.67Rangeldeath, p=0.77Trefonddeath, p=0.80Fitzgeraldcases, p=0.52Baecases, p=0.17Phamdeath, p=0.77Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21Probability results fromineffective treatmentSep 21 p<0.051 in 20Oct 24 p<0.011 in 100Dec 28 p<0.0011 in 1 thousand
    
  
100+ 75 50 25 25 50 75 100 Boulware, cases, p=0.35Mitjà, death, p=0.27Polat, cases, p=0.03Dhibar, cases, p=0.03Simova, cases, p=0.01Barnabas, hosp., p=1.00Post-Exposure Prophylaxis% Lower Risk% Increased Riskhcqmeta.com 3/4/21
Figure 4. Chronological history of results by treatment stage, with the probability that the observed frequency of positive results occurred due to random chance from an ineffective treatment.